📍 Lagos, Nigeria – According to the IMF, Brent crude at $68 vs ₦75 budget benchmark is reshaping fiscal plans, subsidy cuts, and cash relief in Nigeria’s 2025 budget.
🔍 Key Takeaways
Oil price shortfall: Brent has slipped to ~$68, missing Nigeria’s budget benchmark of $75
IMF warning: “Nigeria needs to recalibrate its 2025 budget …” with stronger buffers, tighter fiscal stance
Subsidy leverage: Fuel subsidy savings, about 2 % of GDP, are key amid low oil revenues
Cash transfers: IMF urges expansion to shield the poor, but bank‑inclusion gaps hinder rollout
Currency stability: Market reforms have aligned parallel & official FX rates, boosting investor confidence
📄 News Details
Following the IMF’s warning, Nigeria’s Brent benchmark has tumbled to around $68 – undercutting the ₦75 floor assumed in the 2025 budget. According to IMF mission chief Axel Schimmelpfennig, “The international economic environment … marked by very, very large uncertainty, and … oil price volatility impacts Nigeria directly through the fiscal and external balances” .
As at the time of filing this report, oil‑linked revenues remain under pressure. The country’s 2 mbpd production target, now behind pace, worsens the gap . And speaking further, the IMF flagged that subsidy savings of ~2 % GDP and administrative reforms must fill the fiscal void.
In a video filmed by Reuters, Schimmelpfennig said Nigeria must expand cash transfers to cushion vulnerable groups hit by inflation and poverty, but limited banking access poses a barrier .
📣 On the streets of Abuja, petrol vendors say prices may rise further. “E no go easy for market again o,” one vendor lamented, as families worry about rising costs for cooking gas, transport, and food—echoing emotional strain nationwide.
🗨️ Top Social Media Comments
commented @OilWatcher on X: “Brent at $68 na real wake‑up call for government budgeting!”
commented @NaijaMama on Facebook: “Una see as subsidy cuts dey help but e pain for poor people.”
commented @MarketInsider on Instagram: “IMF dey call am straight – no more wishful thinking.”
commented @LagosDriver on X: “Transport fare don dey climb daily. Budget not matching reality.”
commented @YemiBiz on YouTube: “Reform FX ✅, but oil drop na hammer blow.”
The latest Nigeria news signals a fiscal squeeze as oil prices falter below budget assumptions. Following the report, the government must pivot swiftly—harnessing subsidy savings, scaling up cash transfers, and cementing FX reforms to avert a deeper crisis.
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I am happy to know that the price of oil per barrel is more than what I expected earlier.
“Yawa, oil price dey slide, na $68 Brent now, below Nigeria ₦75 benchmark. Dey go fit adjust fiscal plan, subsidy cuts, and cash transfers to poor people, but bank inclusion dey pose challenge.”